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The missing (at least in the media) causality elephant in the room is of course impaired health from several types of chronic disease or degeneration (possibly unknown – see also the image above). From the data it is a well established fact that covid is quasi not deadly for people without health impairment. For example the category Belgian boys from 0 to 24 years old (about 1.6 million individuals) has the least health impairment compared to older age categories and after about one year of covid has zero deaths for which covid is a suspected cause. From the data it is also a well established fact that a very large majority of the deaths, for which covid is a suspected cause, had known impaired health.
In the first very simple data driven causality model, which gives far too much causality to the covid coronavirus as demonstrated below, an equal causality part of 50% is attributed to the covid coronavirus and to impaired health from several types of chronic disease or degeration. This model is based on the fact that for a very large majority of the reported deaths both causes were required. May I point out that already this very simple causality model demonstrates that the “Covid Death Toll” and alike claims are false.
What is wrong with the above very simple model? From the missing causality elephant in the room paragraph it is statistically clear that the covid coronavirus quasi cannot kill without health impairment whereas it is a well established fact that health impairment from several types of chronic disease or degeneration can kill on its own or in the presence of other tip over causes (like other virusses and bacteria that normally don't kill without health impairment, …). In conclusion, statistically speaking, the health impairment is the fundamental absolute causal condition for the reported deaths and the suspected covid coronavirus is merely a, although probably important, tip over cause like many other possible tip over causes. In other words without health impairment covid will most probably not kill. Clearly in this simple data driven model a smaller causality percentage has to be attributed to the tip over cause. Lets go 50 / 50 again and give 25% to the covid coronavirus tip over cause and 25% extra, thus 75%, to the fundamental absolute causal condition health impairment.
Lets finish with the most detailed data driven causility model. Which data could be used as a measure for health impairment. Quite obviously age seems a good candidate. Clearly age as a measure for health impairment cannot be used on an individual but it makes sense to use it on large enough groups of people in age categories. On average older age categories will have more health impairment than younger age categories. Lets take 100 years as an upper limit for age. Then in the model for the concerned deaths an age of 75 corresponds with a health impairment causality of 75% and the remaining 25% is the covid coronavirus causality percentage. Then to calculate the covid coronavirus causality percentage for all concerned deaths the covid coronavirus causality percentage of an age category is weighted with the normalised number of concerned deaths in that age category and the total percentage is calculated as the weighted average of all age categories. Since factually old age categories have a high number of concerned deaths and have a low covid causality percentage this logically results in a low total covid corovirus causality percentage of 16.6%. This low percentage clearly demonstrates the “Covid Death Toll” and alike claims are false because of exagerating the covid causality of death 6 fold.
One can criticize the above data driven causality models and propose other and possibly better causality models which I would welcome. Anyway the above models are far superior in assigning covid corovirus causality percentage compared to just bluntly ignoring the other causality elephant in the room, health impairment from several types of chronic disease or degeneration.
The article ”Fact Check -> False Claim: Reporting “Covid Death Toll” and alike implies that the Covid Coronavirus is the Dominant Cause of those Deaths which is a False Claim” is written by: Paka Small.- 2021/05/03
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